Tell that to Tim Pawlenty.
Pawlenty got squeezed out a bit in the 2012 campaign on three sides: Michelle Bachmann got him from the Right, Mitt Romney got him from the Left, and Rick Perry slammed him with the frontal assault; it was Perry's entrance into the race that forced Pawlenty out. But he made some bad choices, and he did suffer, basically, from his struggle to find a really compelling message. Pawlenty's rhetorical style and lack of a compelling message made him "boring."
One of the reasons Scott Walker has faced skepticism from the pundit class is because people are making a Pawlenty analogy. Pawlenty was bland; Walker is bland. Minnesota and Wisconsin governor, same thing. But if his initial campaign speech is any indication, Walker will not have Pawlenty's messaging problem. I noticed that his rhetorical choices in the speech were perfectly calibrated for his conservative audience. So I wanted to do a bit of analysis on his basic argument here. It will form, I suspect, the basis for a very compelling primary campaign.
After offering some local color to the audience (touting his Midwestern bona fides and his appreciation for new hero of the right, Joni Ernst), Walker immediately pivots to his recall election and he thanks everyone for their support, with their time, money, and prayers. But Walker's real focus in the first part of this speech is on the conduct of the opposition. In particular, he highlights some of the more indefensible actions of the protesters:
The bigger challenge for us--at least for me personally--were all the death threats and visits to our home. You see, you've heard about those protests, but you may not know at one point in all this, there were literally thousands of protesters out in front of our family home in Wauwatosa, where my two sons were still going to high school, and where my parents were living at the time. In fact, my kids were targeted on Facebook. At one point I remember my mother in her 70s and my youngest son Alex were literally at the grocery store where protesters followed them down the aisle just to yell at them even though it was me that was doing the policies out there.
Even moreso than just the visits in front of our home was the fact that at one point the threats were just overwhelming. Most of those death threats were appointed at or directed at me. But some of the worst were directed at my family. I remember that one of the ones that bothered me the most was someone literally sent me a threat that said they were gonna gut my wife like a deer. Another time, a protester sent a threat directly to my wife that said if she didn't do something to stop me, I would be the first Wisconsin governor ever assassinated. The writer went on in greater detail to point out where exactly my children were going to school, where my wife worked, and where my father-in-law was still living at that time. You can see what they were doing, and so I tell you today, that, thanks to all of you for not just the grassroots support and donations, but most importantly, thank you for those prayers, 'cause you can see how important they were in dark days like that.
Time and time again, time and time again, the protesters were trying to intimidate us. But you know what? All they did was remind me how important, how important it was to stand up for the people of my state. They reminded me to focus on why I ran for governor in the first place.This is not a normal political speech! Most politicians don't talk about the death threats their family received, let alone have it be a central theme and part of their argument.
I love Arnold Kling's "three axis" construct, and I think this speech directly activates that "civilization/barbarism" axis that conservatives often have as a prism for seeing the world. To a conservative audience, there is only one way to react to this: "Those barbarians." So Walker's audience is now primed to see the opposition as fighting dirty and standing in the way of what needs to be done.
Then Walker moves to the rest of his speech, which basically is a rhetorical victory lap about how his programs have been successful in Wisconsin: he won his fight with the unions, the state is economically strong, districts can pay teachers for performance, etc. Whether we accept these things as true or not, they are compelling for conservative voters.
So the audience leaves the speech with two ideas: the opposition fights dirty and is absolutely intransigent, and Walker defeated them.
This is a potent case for a right-wing audience, and it is one that no other conservative can make. (Ted Cruz fights, but he loses. Rick Perry fights, but he's from right-wing Texas. Rick Santorum fights, but he lost in Pennsylvania by 20 points.) A few other things stand out:
1. Walker links the Occupy movement to the Wisconsin protesters, which standard right-wingers denigrate on principle. "Those hippies." It's a useful way to gain sympathy.
2. Walker did this speech without a teleprompter, which will attract some favor from parts of the Right that mock Obama for his reliance on them.
3. Walker has an extended riff on bargain hunting at Kohl's. He's not a candidate who is going to ever risk getting caught in a "bitter clingers" moment, where he seems detached from the voters he's trying to persuade. Moreover, this is a useful "homespun" anecdote that working-class and middle-class people can relate to.
But perhaps most importantly, Walker absolutely does not have a "conservatism as a second language" problem. He understands conservatives and can talk to conservatives in terms they understand. His use of the Wisconsin protests--turning a potential weakness into a major strength--confirms that better than anything else.
A few challenges remain: I think it is pretty evident that Walker will be able to win a substantial share of the more conservative voters in the Republican primaries, but blue state Republicans remain important in the process. The "establishment" types and more moderate conservatives might shy away from his combative record. It also remains to be seen whether Walker can transition from the primary campaign to a general election, when the protest movement is such a key part of his stump speech. He should probably have someone thinking about that message; it would make sense for him to reach out to some reform conservatives to help him prepare a policy message that will address the interests and needs of working-class Midwestern voters. This should be a bigger part of his message, even in the primary campaign, so he can pivot more easily. (He should be walking around with a copy of Room to Grow and should call Yuval Levin and Mike Lee like, yesterday.)
Put it this way, though: say Walker manages to win Iowa, and Jeb Bush wins New Hampshire. Is anyone really prepared to give Jeb Bush a win over Scott Walker in South Carolina?
Walker will be formidable. Underestimate him at your peril.
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