One More Thing on Chris Christie

I've been saying for almost a year that I think Christie is a longshot at best for the nomination; in fact, I've used "doomed" as my word of choice, and I still believe that. Two prominent commentators--Nate Silver and Larry Sabato--have offered related thoughts. Yet both have focused on the Christie/Cowboys thing as a negative, to some extent at least. Sabato writes,

Christie’s over-the-top performance in Jerry Jones’ box last weekend, with his bear-hugging of Jones and his jumping up and down while squealing like a schoolgirl, infuriated and disgusted millions (our considered estimate). Still, it would be probably unwise, though somewhat just, to take out the nation’s massive dislike of the Dallas Cowboys on Christie. Yet Christie’s demonstrated aversion to Detroit, and his snubbing of New Jersey-area home teams, may earn him the voters’ rebuke in the Lions’ Michigan, the Giants’ and Jets’ New York, and the Eagles’ Pennsylvania.

Sabato is being tongue-in-cheek here, but there's a kernel of truth to it, I think, at least from his perspective, if I'm reading it right. Silver is more serious, writing,

So, what to make of something like Christie having been spotted in a luxury box in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday, where he joined Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones ­­to watch the Cowboys’ 24-20 comeback win over the Detroit Lions? (Unlike certain politicians, Christie doesn’t seem to have mastered the art of rooting for a team from a swing state.) It seemed like a silly controversy until it was revealed that a company co-owned by the Cowboys was recently awarded a contract by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. 

Whether there’s actual impropriety or just the appearance of it, it was a dumb place for Christie to be seen if he’s contemplating a presidential bid. A presidential campaign is a long and mostly dull thing, and reporters chase down the serious and silly stories alike.

I have my own issues with Christie and the Cowboys, as I've written. But in terms of his chances at the nomination, I think that it doesn't hurt him, and might actually help him, marginally.

Although he is considered a frontrunner, Christie is best thought of as a longshot candidate. Frontrunners can sustain risk-averse strategies; in fact, they may well be the optimal ones. But longshot candidates have to do things that are risky. Christie's best argument at this stage may be something like "refreshing, radical authenticity." It is unlikely to resonate, but that does not mean that it is completely impossible. The governor of New Jersey rooting openly and loudly for the hated Dallas Cowboys could be taken as a sign of that authenticity. Jumping around like an idiot after the Cowboys clinched the win? Definitely authentic. What politician does that, ever?

To win the nomination, at a minimum, Christie needs a bunch of New Hampshireities to say, "Man, Christie's the guy I'd like to have a beer with!" Christie's not going to get votes via issue fidelity, or being the most conservative electable candidate in the very deep field. But he might get there by the sheer force of his personality, if it resonates.

Again, this is a low-likelihood play; Christie is severely disadvantaged by a bunch of things, at this point. But considering his position as a candidate, it is his best chance.

Christie should be himself.