What I think I know about covid

Filter:

Contention	Confidence Level	Why I Believe This	Updated
mRNA vaccines are highly effective against covid.	High	Vaccines	7/10/2021
mRNA vaccines can produce myocarditis in younger people.	Medium -> High	Treatment	7/10/2021
Dexamethasone is a mildly effective treatment for severe covid cases.	High	This is the standing medical consensus at this point, and I think we've been solidly here for a year. Trump himself got dexamethasone when he was sick.	7/10/2021

In my ideal world...

In my ideal world, the Chinese government would have identified the risks of the virus back in December and instituted the protocols necessary to prevent its spread. But this is not that world. 

In my ideal world, world governments would have understood that the virus warranted more aggressive travel restrictions immediately, rather than being lackadaisical. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, all levels of American government would have explained the risks of a “novel” virus beginning in January and started mobilizing against it. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, the “smart set” would have taken the concerns of the idiosyncratic more seriously, instead of pooh-poohing such concerns as paranoia. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, the bureaucracy of the US government would not have completely botched its surveillance testing in February. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, the addled President of the United States would not have argued and fought for reduced testing because testing increased our case counts. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, once the virus became clear, American society would have tolerated far greater mobility restrictions for a short period of time in an effort to “crush” the virus down to a traceable level. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, the American government would have set super-ambitious rapid testing targets in the order of hundreds of millions a day, to get out in front of the virus and empower individuals with the knowledge to make good choices. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, we would have invested in prophylactic sewage monitoring as an “early warning system,” to identify hotspots and outbreaks before they became uncontrolled. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, levels of American government would have financed more contact tracing to get a handle on how spread actually occurs to determine the risks of in-person schooling, after-school sports, restaurants, and air travel. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, American society would have been obsessed with breaking chains of viral transmission instead of flattening the curve. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, European governments would have discouraged summer vacations and international travel, to limit the opportunities for the virus to spread and mutate. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, we would not have assumed that children are mostly immune, and thus placed them at unknown and unpredictable risk to support our selfishness. But this is not that world.

In my ideal world, we would not have been left with a choice between continued isolation, repeated infections by a deadly virus, and taking an experimental vaccine with no long-term safety record. But this is not that world.

Given that we don’t live in an ideal world, I got the shot. 

I got the shot so I can go back to church and take communion, so I can spend time with friends and family, so I can play and watch music in public, so I can go to Mets games again, so I can take my kids places, so life can have more in-person meetings and fewer video calls, so I don't have to think twice about visiting a dying relative in the hospital, so I can do my small part to get us towards herd immunity and a semblance of normalcy.

I think you should too.